Like every category, 2021 will pose some major hurdles for road & gravel bike availability. And while that may make it harder to find your next dream bike, we won’t be surprised to see these two categories continue to evolve in a number of ways. Here are our predictions on what we’ll see for drop bar bicycles in 2021…

More tire clearance

I think we say this every year – for a reason. With most bikes designed at least 2-3 years prior to their release, it can be hard to pinpoint where standards like tire clearance will land by the time the bike is released. At the time of their last design, a 40mm gravel tire may seem huge, only to be dwarfed by 45mm and larger tires that are growing in popularity.

The same goes for road bikes – years ago, many riders couldn’t imagine ever riding larger than 25mm slicks. Now, 28mm is close to becoming the standard, with clearance for 30 and even 32mm rubber fairly common.

The proliferation of wider rims, which can make tires run larger than their specifications suggest, means the need for frames and forks that will clear bigger tires – especially if mud clearance is a requirement.

Which means less 650B

2020 Niner RLT9 steel gravel bike gets more frame bag and accessory mounts
You can get many gravel bikes, like this Niner RLT, with 650B wheels, but most build options feature 700c wheels.

For the same reasons we expect more tire clearance on gravel bikes, we suspect there’ll be fewer 650B bikes and builds. Over the past two years, we’ve seen fewer and fewer gravel bikes designed around 650B, even for smaller frame sizes and shorter riders. And many of those are sold as 700c builds with the option to run 650B wheels and tires.

If you can run a 700×50 tire, which measures ~2″ wide, and get the improved rolling speed and rollover smoothness, why would you want a 650B setup just to gain 0.1″ of tire width?

For the shortest riders, some brands will likely always offer a 650B option for road bikes, where tighter geometry can incur toe overlap penalties. But on gravel, our bets are on most bikes being 700c going forward.

More 1x drivetrains (sort of)

The rise of the mullet drivetrain, pairing drop bar shifters with wide range MTB cassette gearing, may finally seal the deal for 1x drivetrains on gravel bikes.

Even with the wider range gearing, the large steps between gears will still probably make it a tough sell for road bikes. But if the Classified hub system, with internal 2-speed wireless gearing that effectively replaces a front double chainring and derailleur, catches on, we could see more bikes ditch the front derailleurs in favor of a “2x” system with the “front shifting” packaged into the rear hub.

Campagnolo Ekar 1x13 gravel group, 13-speed gravel bike drivetrain, rear derailleur

The new wide-range Campagnolo Ekar group could also be a nudge toward 1x for road. It’s lightweight, provides plenty of range, and offers tighter gear steps than moving all the way up to an ultra-wide mountain bike cassette.

sram force axs wide review

Along those lines, could this finally be the year that SRAM answers everyone’s request for a mid-range 12-speed cassette that falls somewhere between Eagle and their current 11-36 options. Sadly, the only 11-42 option left in the line is their low-level PG1130 cassette. And the splashy introduction around 2×12 Force Wider Gearing probably means chances are low that we’ll see a 12-speed 10-42 cassette, but we can hope, can’t we?

Cyclo-what?

giant cyclocross race bike running up a hill

If you had to guess how many stories we published this year with the word “cyclocross” in the title, what would you think?

The answer is Three.

And only one of those was about a new bike. The others were for cyclocross tire inserts, and some gravel wheels that can also work for cyclocross. Barring those, there was virtually no real development in the CX category. And we don’t see that changing much for 2021, despite the racing having continued through COVID. We love ‘cross as much as anyone, it’s just that everyone’s more interested in gravel now.

New road groups?

dura-ace-11-speed-crankset

Perhaps the surest prediction we’ll make is that we’ll see a new Shimano Dura-Ace group. It’s time, but it’s also Shimano’s 100th Anniversary. Unfortunately, COVID concerns (especially in Japan at the moment) mean we may not get a celebratory blowout launch party, but the group itself will almost certainly make a debut.

The questions we have are around the gearing and tech…will they go 12 or 13 speed? Will there be a wide wide range option, or will it stick to traditional road numbers and leave GRX to cover the rest? And will Di2 go wireless? Regardless of those things, we’re pretty sure the design and technology will be every bit as impressive as what they pulled off with XTR.

SRAM RED eTap AXS 12-speed road bike group with wireless electronic shifting - full technical details and specs
SRAM went 12 speed a while ago, but there’s still no mechanical version for road or gravel bikes.

Jumping back to SRAM, another thing we’d all love to see them launch is a freakin’ 12-speed mechanical group. The AXS wireless shifting is amazing, but they are no doubt losing OEM placements and more cost-conscious consumers at this point by not offering a high end, mechanically actuated group.

They’ve proven they can make a great shifting, really light mechanical group, so it’s a shame they keep leaving us wanting on this. Here’s hoping 2021 is the year they finally give the people what they want. Unless they bring wireless to the Apex level…because at that point, who needs cables?

Wider bars & shorter stems

Curve Walmer super wide flared dropbars, gravel bikepacking adventure alloy drop handlebar, mountain bike riding

We saw this happen with mountain bikes, and now we’re seeing it for the dropbar crowd. Given that narrower bars and longer stems are still proving to be more aerodynamic, we expect more of a split between the performance road segment looking for every speed advantage, and the gravel/all-road segment who is willing to make small sacrifices in aerodynamics for increased control and comfort.

It would make sense for the bikepacking crowd to stay at the wider end of this trend as fully loaded bikes tend to be slower anyway, and the wider bars make it easier to load up and and control the heavy front ends.

ritchey gravel bar flared drops brakes shifters angled outwards

We’re also thinking that some component brands might start putting a little flare on their road handlebars. It’s nearly a standard thing now for gravel, but by pushing the drops out a bit wider than the hoods, it offers more wrist clearance and better comfort when you’re tucking low. Which, we think, is probably something you’re doing more on your road bike than your gravel bike anyway, so, um, yeah.

More integration

2021 BH Ultralight EVO road bike, lightweight carbon climbers integrated disc brake road bike, BH Unique
BH Ultralight road bike gets full cable and hose integration.

We said it last year and we’ll say it again. Love it or lump it, cable and wire integration is going to continue to spread. It’s an easy aerodynamic gain, and most of us appreciate the cleaner aesthetic. If we’re being honest, most riders rarely need to change a brake hose, and full length internal cable routing is now nearly ubiquitous, so the maintenance downsides are few.

2021 BH Ultralight EVO road bike, lightweight carbon climbers integrated disc brake road bike, FSA ACR headset
Integrated bar and stem options are giving more brands off-the-shelf cable management solutions that hide everything.

It used to be that integrated designs would add a bit of weight compared to tiny cable stops and less housing. But that problem has basically gone away, with marginal aero gains becoming more important, and better layup and designs mitigating any weight penalty. Need examples? Just look at the latest BH Ultralight and Trek Emonda as proof.

Lighter bikes…maybe?

detail photos of the specialized aethos s works road bike
The Founder’s Edition S-Works Aethos isn’t just one of the lightest bikes, it’s also one of the most expensive.

This one’s our most speculative of the predictions. Specialized kinda surprised everyone with the 585g Aethos by eschewing the aerodynamic upgrades and crazy integrations that have become more and more popular. And then they launched almost-as-light Pro and Expert level versions. And they ride amazing. In doing so, they’ve set the bar pretty, um, low for achieving “lightest bike in the world” status. Well, full production bikes, that is. With normal parts and standards.

cannondale supersix evo road bike

Surely this raised alarms at Cannondale, who recently revised their SystemSix EVO and who has long prided itself on offering some of the lightest bikes around. And Trek and BH (mentioned above), too, among others.

Assuming they were caught as off guard as we were, will they (or anyone else) be able to counter in such a short time frame? Specialized spent years testing and refining the Aethos before launching it. And when a frame (or part) pushes the boundaries, it needs a lot of R&D and testing.

Which means you either need a lot of time, or a lot of money. Or both. Specialized had both, but only a few other brands have the financial resources to fuel such an ambitious, R&D-heavy project, but it’ll likely take at least a full year to get anywhere close to production ready.

E-Road Bikes are officially a thing

merida all-road e-road bikes hide the motor
Merida’s All Road eBikemotion e-road bike looks just like a regular road bike.

They didn’t debut last year, but they certainly got better, lighter, and more streamlined in 2020. And you can expect that to continue, with more brands launching them, and the existing models getting better.

Want proof the category is progressing? Scott just launched the “lightest e-road bike ever“, Trek added a more affordable version of the Domane+, Canyon got into the game, Yamaha brought their e-road bikes to the U.S., Orbea pushed the stealth integration even further, and BH’s Core Carbon upped the range to 137 miles!

Hub motors aren’t dead yet, either, which allowed Merida to make a range of all-road and gravel e-bikes that are almost indistinguishable from regular bikes.

It’s easy to knock this category as ridiculous, but we’ve been using one to allow our family and friends to join us on big rides they’d otherwise not be able to do…including a three-day, 240+ mile bikepacking trip in NC!

Update: Yes, it looks like Road Boost spacing is a thing now too!

It started with a smattering of e-road & e-gravel bikes for a few years – think Focus Paralane², Specialized Turbo Creo SL, and Canyon Grail:ON. But now, the Focus Atlas gravel bike has gone with the new 12x148mm rear + 12x110mm spacing. And the new standard’s adoption by wheel & hub makers suggests that Road Boost isn’t going away anytime soon. Read all about it here.

What else is coming?

Have you spotted a trend we missed? What do you think is coming next for road, gravel or cyclocross bikes in 2021? Leave your thoughts in the comments, and be sure to check out our general predictions for the cycling industry as a whole, too!

23 COMMENTS

  1. The shown (latest) Niner RLT are also for 700x50C (which means 2.0″ 29er Tires like Schwalbe G-One or Furious Fred) as well 😉

    Same tire clearance for 650B and 700C

  2. Flat bars are next. Anyone who’s ever done longer decents on rougher gravel/fire roads (or singletrack) KNOWS that road-hoods SUCK for braking. There are several gravel events I do that have decents that are 30-45 minutes long. Brutal on the wrists…

    • Hey, that’s pretty descent! Or is that decent? You should be descending in the drops, not on the hoods. That’s what they’re there for. And one finger braking with hydros. What are you running, sintered rim brake pads from the 70’s?

    • Well, if you’re descending in the hoods on your gravel bike for that long and having issues, your setup is wrong. Also, the key issue with the hoods isn’t that braking is bad (especially with GRX), but that you have more overall control/power in the drops. Especially a decently wide bar with flared drops.

  3. Hoping to see more elastomer soft tails. Such a cheap, elegant solution to road and trail buzz. BMC URS and Wilier Cento 10 NDR are awesome.

  4. Ja sam uvjerena da će osim električnih instalacija u svakakvim pravcima imati dosta
    posla sa geometrijjom i težina će se smanjiti naravno , materijali i sve u svemu osim cijene,
    valjda će malo se vratiti i retro stil bicikla a i života općenito:-)(TT)

  5. With what people keep on asking for in gravel bikes (flat bars, wider clearance, slacker head tubes, etc) it seems like what they really need is to just get a hard tail mountain bike.

    • Slacked head tubes work. Flat bars have been around long enough (and many of us road flat bars in gravel grinders in early 90s) that if there was an advantage we’d see more of it. But modern dirt drop and gravel bars fix that issue.

  6. Regarding cable integration, a lot of wild new gravel bars are coming on the market. I’ve got a Redshift Kitchen Sink on order, and Crust and Ritchey are coming out with some pretty cool bends. Not a good time for gravel brands to take away that common 31.8 standard, just when so much selection is hitting the market. is the marginal gain of hiding cables worth it on a gravel bike?

    For higher end road, for sure.

  7. Not a prediction, but I’d like to see more small and extra-small bikes come with cranks shorter than 165, and have lower bottom brackets to match.

  8. Amazing it took the commercialized industry so long to finally catch on to “more tire clearance”. Standard 25’s or 28’s don’t make much sense for real-world riding where curiosity to explore unpaved roads is ever intriguing. Larger tires are also faster on “real-world” roads that aren’t perfectly paved for a tour-race. They’re also more comfortable and safer

    • Yup! Where I ride the dirt is sometimes smoother the the pavement. Now that you can get fast 32s(GP5000, for example), being able to run those seems like an obvious feature.

    • How do you figure? Road/Gravel geometry is completely different from MTB. Adding a flatbar to gravel bike isn’t the same as a full rigid mtb. Apple to oranges dear Mitch.

      • There’s a Diverge offered in Flat bar. I thought the whole thing about gravel bikes was the ability to ride drop bars on dirt. I saw some rigid Mountain Bike forks coming to market on some Mountain bikes labeled as bike packing bikes

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